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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-23T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-23T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32145/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the E in all coronagraphs. The source is an M2.4 flare from an unnumbered region on the SE limb around S10E77, which peaked at 2024-07-23T14:28Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed starting around 2024-07-23T13:34Z as rapid field line opening with an EUV wave, followed by post-eruptive arcades, in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. No CME or CME shock arrival signature in solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-26T13:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 23/1755 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 973 
Longitude (deg): E48
Latitude (deg): S04
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes:

Lead Time: 15.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-07-25T22:00Z

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